Sam Howell has always taken a lot of sacks. The total so far this year might be surprising — 19, tied for the most by any quarterback over the first three weeks of a season since at least 2000 — but it is not surprising at all that sacks have been a problem. In fact, all the evidence suggests they will continue to be an issue.
Howell and the Washington Commanders face a major question: Is the sack problem fixable? Or, more realistically, is it manageable? Can they reduce his sack rate enough to succeed despite a thinner margin for error? If so, how quickly and how drastically?
The answers are intertwined with one of the central questions of the 2023 season: Can Howell be a franchise quarterback?
This week, Howell took ownership of the sacks. He said he needed to get the ball out faster and to better manage the risk/reward of extending a play or throwing the ball away. He said that he’s working on it, that he’ll improve, and Coach Ron Rivera said the problem “absolutely” can be fixed.
Advertisement
“One of the right-away quick fixes is Sam releasing the ball,” he said. “I’m not saying it’s all been Sam’s fault. I’m just saying he can help correct some of the issues.”
This week, the Commanders are facing one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The Philadelphia Eagles, under new defensive coordinator Sean Desai, have an extremely talented line with most of the same personnel from their Super Bowl run, as well as first-round defensive tackle Jalen Carter.
“The Jalen Carter kid doesn’t even start … but he’s one of the better players we’ll play all year,” Howell said.
Let’s dig into Howell’s tendency to take sacks — how it developed, why it’s a big deal — and what the film and data say about whether it’s fixable.
Why are sacks a QB stat?
Several studies have shown quarterbacks mostly control their own sack rates. One of the most famous, from the Big Lead, found sack rate was “one of the most consistent things when a quarterback changes teams. It is one of the least consistent things when a team changes quarterbacks.”
Advertisement
Other studies have shown sack rate is one of the most stable metrics for quarterbacks from college to the NFL.
The offensive line matters, too, right?
Of course. Play-calling has to put players in positions to succeed, and skill players have to run good routes and help protect at times as well. Some of the concepts offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy called Sunday were long developing; Terry McLaurin said the receivers’ spacing wasn’t great, making it harder for Howell to get clean reads.
The line, which has been responsible for some sacks, has been unsurprisingly pedestrian. This offseason, the front office invested more in other areas, gambling the line would be greater than the sum of its parts.
Though the blame for individual sacks can be shared, sack rate clearly captures a quarterback’s style and decision-making more than any other variable, including the quality of the line.
How long has Howell had a sack problem?
Sacks have been a glaring issue at least since he got to North Carolina, which is as far back as there’s reliable data. Howell’s lowest sack rate in college, 8.1 percent during his freshman year, was still well above the Football Bowl Subdivision and NFL averages most years (roughly 6 percent). When he was a sophomore in 2020 and buzz built that he could be a No. 1 pick, his sack rate was 8.7 percent.
Advertisement
Key metrics underlying sack rate, including average time to throw and pressure-to-sack ratio, suggest Howell was responsible for a fair share of his pressures in college.
Before the 2022 draft, ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder called Howell’s penchant for taking sacks a red flag. Howell could still succeed, Walder said, but his sack rate heightened the importance of other aspects of his game, such as accuracy and scrambling.
How big is the problem right now?
Massive. Sacks derail drives. Look at the first drive against Buffalo. Howell started by throwing quick, short passes for modest gains. Then, at the doorstep of the red zone, two sacks nearly pushed the offense out of field goal range, and on third and 19, Howell forced a throw to the sticks that was intercepted.
In the first two games, Washington won despite the sacks, most notably the sack-fumble touchdown that gave Arizona the lead in Week 1. Howell has also taken two sacks negated by penalties. According to a Washington Post analysis, Howell’s sacks are costing the Commanders approximately 10.4 offensive points per game.
Advertisement
How are defenses exploiting it?
By letting Howell sack himself. Defensive coordinators have blitzed Howell just 17 percent of the time this season, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Coordinators seem to be betting the coverage will be good enough — because of a well disguised scheme, the sheer space occupied by seven defenders or both — that Howell will hesitate and hold the ball long enough for the pass rushers to get to him.
After the Buffalo loss, several Bills defenders said Howell had a tendency to hold the ball, especially on third down, and look at receivers early in his progressions, especially against zone coverages. They could follow Howell’s eyes because he didn’t look them off.
“There was no [rhythm of] one, two, three, checkdown with him,” Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard said. “He was kind of locking on to his guy early on and then waiting for them to get open enough for him to try to throw it in there. And that was when the plays were made.”
Advertisement
“Every third down, they [were] holding the ball three seconds, and I feel like that’s way too long,” edge rusher Leonard Floyd said. “With the guys we got up front … anything more than 2.5 [seconds] and we are going to be having a party back there.”
Of Howell’s 19 sacks this year, 15 have taken at least three seconds.
Does the film say it’s fixable?
Probably. Most sacks seem to come from inexperience: Howell being in the early stages of learning a complicated offense and his impulse to keep fighting to try to turn broken plays into explosive ones. Of the nine sacks against Buffalo, at least six were mostly or exclusively Howell’s fault.
The first sack was the result of what Rivera called “seeing too much.” After Howell realized his initial read wasn’t open, his eyes moved right. He had running back Antonio Gibson up the sideline or wide receiver Dyami Brown in the flat as a checkdown. He picked Brown, patting the ball and winding up, but his eyes went to nearby Bills linebacker Matt Milano. Howell, not wanting Milano to intercept a pass, hesitated for a split second — and got sacked.
Advertisement
The second was a product of indecision. Run-pass option plays require Howell to choose between a handoff or pass. The blocking and routes are predicated on a quick decision. But this time, Howell didn’t hand the ball off and then, inexplicably, also didn’t throw. Instead, he tried to run and was sacked.
The third was because of a slow internal clock. The Bills, on third and nine, sent a rare blitz, rushing six defenders against six blockers, and Howell didn’t throw to McLaurin as he broke out of his cut to the right. Even though the clock ticked past three seconds, Howell didn’t throw the ball away. Sack.
Earlier this year, two former NFL quarterbacks, ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky and QB School’s J.T. O’Sullivan, analyzed Howell’s play and found similar youthful mistakes, such as looking too long at a covered receiver or creating easier angles for pass rushers by sitting too deep in the pocket. But they also said the same things Rivera and Howell’s teammates have emphasized this week: Howell’s special traits and upside could make the growing pains worth it. Right tackle Andrew Wylie, who also protected Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, said offensive linemen like blocking for quarterbacks who hunt big plays.
Advertisement
“[Explosive plays are] a large part of this offense,” he said. “Our game plan every week is just give him that extra second.”
Does data say it’s fixable?
Probably not — though a better question, with a more optimistic answer, is whether the problem is manageable, said Kevin Cole, a football data analyst who writes the Unexpected Points newsletter. Cole pointed out that sack rates are stable for a reason and most modern examples of quarterbacks dramatically reducing their sack rates are veterans such as Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck adapting to protect themselves from injury.
But some quarterbacks have succeeded despite taking a high rate of sacks. From 2012 to 2020, Russell Wilson overcame a sack rate roughly equivalent to Howell’s in college with scrambling and explosive plays. Cole noted that Howell is taking sacks for a reason — he is trying to make plays — and that he has displayed enough playmaking ability for Washington to keep going with his development.
Advertisement
“I don’t think [Howell’s sack rate is] a fatal flaw, like it might be with someone like [Chicago Bears quarterback] Justin Fields,” Cole said. “I think it’s manageable, but he’s going to have to be really, really good when the ball does leave his hand.”
What is Washington doing about the problem?
During practice, quarterbacks coach Tavita Pritchard drills Howell on facets of his game that can help him reduce his sack rate. Sometimes, Pritchard stresses getting the ball out quickly. After the sack-fumble against Arizona, he rolled out a drill for keeping the ball safe while breaking out of the back of the pocket. Before the game against Buffalo, Pritchard preached patience and taking the checkdown when it was available.
The Commanders could also take pressure off Howell by asking him to do less. So far, Bieniemy has called pass plays at one of the league’s highest rates. Rivera acknowledged the Eagles are a difficult matchup, considering the strengths of their defense and Howell’s penchant for holding the ball.
“We’ve got to get the ball out of his hands, and we’ve got to be able to run the ball to slow them down,” he said. “The last thing you want to do is let them pin their ears back.”
There might be no better test than Philadelphia. The Eagles blitz at one of the league’s lowest rates, suggesting they, like the Bills, will challenge Howell to quickly diagnose cloudy pictures, to stay patient, to throw the ball to the right spot or out of bounds.
“[Avoiding sacks is] something I’m definitely always working on and obviously always conscious of,” Howell said Wednesday. “It’s something that I’ll only get better [at] over time.”
It’s easy to believe, when Howell sandwiches mistakes with wow plays, when he says the right things, when he puts in the work, he can grow out of the sack problem. But to do so, he must defy his history and turn words into action.
ncG1vNJzZmivp6x7uK3SoaCnn6Sku7G70q1lnKedZMCxu9GtqmhqYGeAcHyYaGlxZ6OWum60zrCcpaRdqK6kt9Jo