Fantasy football 2023 beginners guide: The best draft picks for Rounds 1-3 -

A solid fantasy football draft won’t guarantee you glory, but it can set you on a path to winning a championship. A great way to establish that foundation is by making the most of your first three picks, which might also be the most exciting part of your draft.

That’s why we’ve put together a step-by-step guide that serves as a road map for selecting your first three players — no matter your draft slot — in a 12-team, point-per-reception league. We’ve got you covered with backup strategies, too, just in case a specific player isn’t available. (Remember to check out our Perfect Draft guide for insights into the later rounds, along with our comprehensive fantasy cheat sheet.)

In this article, we are primarily using players whose likelihood of being available at a given draft position is greater than 50 percent. These probabilities are sourced from the Fantasy Football Calculator’s average draft position data, which provides a real-time snapshot of player selections in mock drafts. But these availability percentages are dynamic and can change with each new mock draft. The average draft positions were accurate as of Aug. 29.

Also note that many of these choices are fungible; Patrick Mahomes is slotted into the sixth pick of the second round here, but if he’s available later in the second round, by all means consider him. The beginner’s guide, though, aims to give you an idea of which position groups you can expect to land from every draft slot.

Finally, you might notice that Jonathan Taylor, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Keenan Allen and Calvin Ridley are not mentioned in this guide. Based on my rankings, you should not expect to leave the first three rounds with any of those players.

Pick 1 (1st, 24th and 25th picks)

With a dominant performance in 2022, Justin Jefferson proved he’s a fantasy force to reckon with. Leading the league in fantasy points and ranking high in crucial metrics such as target share (29 percent, fifth most) and yards per route run (2.6, second most), the Minnesota Vikings star is primed to continue his excellence. His red-zone prowess (14 catches on 28 targets, six for touchdowns) makes him an elite choice, promising consistent production and potential for explosive plays.

In the second round, running back Josh Jacobs is a solid play. He defied expectations in 2022, emerging as a fantasy gem despite his affordable average draft position as a fourth-round pick. He shattered doubts about a potential committee role, becoming the Las Vegas Raiders’ workhorse. Leading the NFL in touches (393) and finishing as the third-best back in point-per-reception leagues, Jacobs proved to be a rare bell-cow back in the modern NFL. He recently agreed to a one-year deal to play for the Raiders this season.

Despite the arrival of Ezekiel Elliott, Rhamondre Stevenson should still function as the Patriots’ lead back. His potential red-zone limitations are outweighed by his anticipated feature role. He demonstrated his worth in 2022 as the seventh-best running back in total fantasy points (249), even alongside Damien Harris. Stevenson’s versatility, solid route participation and impressive target numbers further solidify his appeal, making him an exciting third-round pick with significant upside. Najee Harris (described below) and Joe Mixon are options if one of these backs is gone.

Pick 2 (2nd, 23rd and 26th)

RB/RB/QB or RB/WR/QB

After a trade to the 49ers, Christian McCaffrey seamlessly integrated himself into San Francisco’s offense, emerging as a renewed fantasy powerhouse. Leading all running backs in points from Week 8 onward, he showcased his elite skills on the ground and through the air. With consistent touches, high snap share and impressive receiving prowess, McCaffrey’s track record and unique role in a crowded offense make him one of the NFL’s prime fantasy producers.

In the second round, look for Jacobs or Stevenson, whose merits are described above. If they aren’t available, go with wide receiver DeVonta Smith or Tee Higgins. Smith’s sophomore season showcased his potential as a top-tier wideout. His route participation (targets on 23 percent of routes run) and near-even split in target share (27 percent) with the better-known A.J. Brown underline his integral role. With increasing chemistry in Philadelphia’s offense, Smith’s route running and target involvement bode well for sustained fantasy success. Higgins, meanwhile, thrived in Cincinnati’s offense, catching 74 of 109 targets for 1,029 yards and seven touchdowns.

In the third round, get a cheat-code quarterback, one who adds tremendous fantasy value by running with the ball. Josh Allen’s consistent excellence with the Bills makes him a top choice. He maintained his high-level performance with over 4,000 passing yards and 35 touchdown passes in 2022, his third straight season hitting those benchmarks. Combining his passing prowess with impressive rushing numbers, including seven touchdowns last season, Allen offers a dual-threat package for fantasy managers.

Jalen Hurts also excelled as both a passer and rusher. With efficient passing stats and an outstanding rushing game, he could be an elite fantasy asset. His 13 rushing touchdowns and consistent ground production solidify his value. After he averaged 772 rushing yards over the past two seasons, Hurts’s dual-threat capabilities present a high ceiling, making him an intriguing choice with immense upside.

Pick 3 (3rd, 22nd and 27th)

WR/RB/WR or WR/WR/RB

This is a decent spot. If Jefferson or McCaffrey are somehow available, don’t hesitate on either, but the more likely scenario is selecting Ja’Marr Chase. Chase’s red-zone dominance, combined with his impressive touchdown record (13 and nine in his two NFL seasons), cements his status as an elite fantasy receiver. Leading in red-zone targets per game (2.0) and boasting a notable target share (23 percent), Chase is a reliable and explosive option.

In the second round, go with Jacobs or Stevenson if you want a running back, or Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle, Smith or Higgins if you’re looking at a wide receiver.

The third round, though, presents a lot of options.

Running back Najee Harris has a high opportunity share, and his second-half surge demonstrated his potential value. The third-year back ranked high in touches (18.4 per game, 10th), and his improvement after the bye week, including five games with 20 or more carries, showcased his potential to carry a fantasy team.

DK Metcalf’s consistent involvement in Seattle’s offense and high upside, given his league-high end-zone targets (23), position him as a valuable pick.

Joe Mixon’s 2022 campaign featured six top-12 weekly finishes and career highs in targets (75), catches (60) and receiving yards (441), earning him the seventh-highest pass-catching grade among running backs from Pro Football Focus. Plus, he thrived despite a mediocre Cincinnati offensive line (21st in run blocking per PFF).

Travis Etienne’s red-zone opportunities and anticipated increased role in Jacksonville’s offense paint a promising picture. With better luck in the backfield of an ascending offense, his touchdown potential is on the rise after he scored just five times in his rookie season.

Travis Etienne had 43 red zone carries in 2022, tied for 5th most among RBs. The other 9 RBs with 40+ red zone carries scored at least 7 times and averaged 11.2 TDs.

Etienne had just 5 TDs.pic.twitter.com/Xn611C3XDm

— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) August 17, 2023

Pick 4 (4th, 21st and 28th)

RB/WR/RB, WR/RB/RB or RB/WR/QB

It’s your choice to go with a wide receiver or running back with the first pick, but assuming the first three picks go by the book, I’d recommend running back Austin Ekeler.

Ekeler’s 38 total touchdowns over the past two seasons give him 12 more than James Conner, who is second with 26. His lead among running backs over the past two seasons in targets (221) and receptions (177) is also impressive, positioning him as a versatile, reliable fantasy asset.

If you want a wide receiver instead, look at Tyreek Hill, whose relocation to Miami didn’t slow him down. He again showcased himself as a premier deep threat (with a league-high 20 receptions traveling 20 yards or more) and recorded six games with at least 143 receiving yards. With Hill dominating in target share, deep targets and yards per route run, his consistent big-play potential and touchdown production make him a superior fantasy receiver.

In Round 2, you should look at Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson or DeVonta Smith — unless Jaylen Waddle or Chris Olave are available. (See below for more on them.)

In Round 3, plan to target Harris, Mixon or Etienne, although quarterbacks Allen or Hurts could also be options.

Pick 5 (5th, 20th and 29th)

Travis Kelce’s dominance as the clear-cut No. 1 tight end, combined with his seven straight 1,000-yard seasons and high touchdown rates, cements him as an elite option. His record-breaking 2022 — career highs in receptions (110) and touchdowns (12) — showcased his unmatched reliability and explosive potential.

In the second round, grab one of two receivers: Jaylen Waddle or Chris Olave. Waddle’s impressive 2022 campaign (75 catches for 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns) underscores his ascension as a versatile playmaker alongside Hill in Miami. Olave’s standout rookie season and efficient metrics signal his potential to be a star for the Saints. His air yards (15 per target, fifth most among 135 players with at least 50 targets), target share (24 percent, 18th) and yards per route run (2.4, seventh) demonstrate his prowess as a deep threat. The latter is highly indicative of future performance. Per fantasy football analyst Alex Caruso, five other rookies met or exceeded the 2.3 yards-per-route-run threshold, and all finished in the top seven at the position the following year.

In the third round, grab a quality back such as Harris, Mixon, Etienne or Lions rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs led Alabama as a junior with 926 rushing yards and caught a team-high 44 passes for 444 receiving yards. He’s going late in the third round in many drafts, but you probably won’t get a chance at this intriguing rookie if you wait until the fourth round.

Pick 6 (6th, 19th and 30th)

WR/WR/RB, TE/WR/RB or RB/WR/RB

If Kelce is gone, there should be at least two quality receivers available among Hill, Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs.

Despite some health concerns, Kupp’s track record and 2022 dominance speak for themselves. He was fourth in fantasy points per game and commanded an elite target share before an ankle injury ended his season in November. If Kupp is healthy, he remains a premier fantasy asset. Diggs’s consistency shines through three seasons of impressive stats. His top rankings in target share (28 percent, seventh), red-zone targets (23, fourth) and yards per route run (2.5, fifth) confirm his elite status.

You could go in a different direction and select running back Saquon Barkley with this pick, although that’s slightly earlier than he is typically taken. Barkley’s 2022 resurgence showcased his explosive potential. Ranking high in opportunities (295 rushes and 76 targets in 2022) and red-zone carries (35, 14th most), he displayed a multifaceted skill set. Ten rushing touchdowns and extensive involvement in the passing game (16 percent target share, fifth most among running backs) make him a reliable option.

In the second round, grab a receiver such as Waddle, Olave or Smith and pair him with a running back such as Harris, Mixon, Etienne or Gibbs in Round 3.

Pick 7 (7th, 18th and 31st)

RB/QB/RB or WR/QB/RB

I would prioritize a running back, Barkley, over wide receivers in this spot, although Kupp or Diggs would provide a solid foundation in a point-per-reception league (and it’s not impossible Kelce will still be available).

But with the comfort of a first-round running back secured, I would next grab quarterback Patrick Mahomes. It’s okay to wait on the quarterback position for value in later rounds, but Mahomes is in a class by himself. Despite losing Tyreek Hill, Mahomes excelled in 2022 with 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdown passes, leading the league in both. With an average of 296 passing yards, two touchdowns and 23 fantasy points over three seasons, he consistently delivers.

In the third round, look for a running back such as Mixon, Etienne or Gibbs, especially if you took a receiver in the first round.

Pick 8 (8th, 17th and 32nd)

RB/RB/WR, RB/RB/TE or RB/WR/RB

A running back probably makes sense here, although Kupp or Diggs would be hard to turn down. If Barkley is gone, then Bijan Robinson could give you the first rookie of the draft. Robinson’s pedigree and collegiate success set him up for immediate fantasy impact with the Falcons. He was the No. 8 pick in the NFL draft — a slightly less exciting event than your fantasy draft — and Robinson’s skill set, size and projected workload in a run-heavy Atlanta offense position him as a top-tier rookie and a season-long fantasy standout.

Double up on running backs in Round 2; Tony Pollard would be ideal (see below), although Derrick Henry is also an option, and it isn’t too early to look at Jacobs or Stevenson. (You could also target Garrett Wilson, discussed below, and then take another running back in the third round.)

In Round 3, go with a pass catcher, ideally either Higgins, Metcalf or tight end Mark Andrews. Andrews’s history of production and occasional fantasy dominance establish him as the No. 2 tight end in this year’s draft. His 2022 campaign produced 73 receptions, 847 yards and five touchdowns. With Lamar Jackson’s return, that duo’s chemistry and a new offense in Baltimore, Andrews offers reliability and high-end fantasy potential.

Pick 9 (9th, 16th and 33rd)

RB/WR/WR, RB/WR/RB or RB/WR/TE

With such a late third-round pick, try to get a running back such as Barkley or Robinson in Round 1. (Nick Chubb is a fallback option.)

Then, in Round 2, you want to go with Garrett Wilson, the New York Jets’ budding star. Wilson’s debut season saw him earn 25 percent of his team’s targets (the league average for a wide receiver is less than 5 percent), including 13 targets in the end zone, first among rookies and eighth among all wide receivers. He’s also getting a serious quarterback upgrade in Aaron Rodgers.

With your third pick, you should go with a running back such as Etienne or Gibbs. But if there are no appealing backs available, and you don’t want to take a tight end in Andrews, grab wide receiver Amari Cooper. Cooper finished the 2022 campaign, his first in Cleveland, with career highs in target share (26 percent), end-zone targets (17, third most at the position) and average depth of target (13.3 yards). That’s the average distance a pass travels in the air from the quarterback to the targeted receiver. Cooper will also have had plenty of time to get more comfortable with Deshaun Watson.

Pick 10 (10th, 15th and 34th)

Nick Chubb makes the most sense, assuming Barkley and Robinson are gone. The four-time Pro Bowl running back is coming off a 1,525-yard season with 12 touchdowns on the ground and another through the air. There is some concern about his performance dip after Watson became Cleveland’s starting quarterback in Week 13, but I wouldn’t worry about that too much. During that time, Chubb got all seven of the red-zone rushes for the Browns and had three rushes of 20 yards or more.

A wide receiver in Round 2 makes sense, either Wilson or Davante Adams. Adams had a league-high 32 percent target share, contributed a stellar 2.5 yards per route run (16th) and averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game, sixth most among wide receivers. You will want a running back in Round 3, preferably Etienne or Gibbs, though Andrews and Cooper are fine options if you opt for a pass catcher.

Pick 11 (11th, 14th and 35th)

RB/RB/QB or RB/WR/QB

At this late stage of the first round, you probably want the best running back. Your most likely options will be Barkley, Robinson or Chubb, although you could also reach for Tony Pollard or Derrick Henry. If you can get a second of those choices in the second round, go ahead; otherwise, take a wide receiver such as Adams or Wilson.

Then, in Round 3, select Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Jackson’s explosive start to 2022 — 749 passing yards and 10 touchdown passes plus 243 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in three games — highlighted his dual-threat prowess. Though injuries curtailed his past two seasons, a new offense and a revamped receiving corps with Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholor and rookie Zay Flowers offer renewed potential.

One more thing: Jackson’s rushing ability provides a fantasy floor few quarterbacks can match. Since 2018, Jackson has averaged almost six fantasy points per game on rushing plays, the most of all quarterbacks with at least 100 rushing attempts in that span. The average quarterback generates 1.3 fantasy points per game on rushing plays.

Pick 12 (12th, 13th and 36th)

RB/RB/QB or RB/WR/QB

Two running backs probably make the most sense with your first two picks, followed by Jackson at quarterback. Don’t worry; you will find plenty of depth at wide receiver with your next few selections.

If you can’t get two running backs you like, you could start running back-wide receiver by nabbing Wilson or Adams.

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