Pete Carroll understands more intimately than most the backlash that comes when an unconventional decision backfires. He spent the offseason living with the aftermath of throwing from the 1-yard-line rather handing the ball to Marshawn Lynch on the decisive play of the Super Bowl, and no matter how times he explained himself, he heard only debates about whether he was an idiot or a lunatic.
So, yeah, Carroll knew the risks when he ordered his kicker to boot onside at the start overtime against the St. Louis Rams. Like his Super Bowl play call, there was logic behind his reasoning. Also like the Super Bowl play call, it turned into an outright disaster that will probably not play well inside his locker room.
[Rams upset among Week 1 highlights]
The Rams recovered the onside kick Steven Hauschka sent their way, then converted a field goal and ultimately stuffed Lynch on fourth down to clinch a 34-31 upset, a potentially crucial outcome in the NFC West. The Seahawks’ first opportunity to prove they had rebounded from last year’s devastating finish was a dud.
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The thing is, once you get beyond the initial, ohymygodwhatishedoing shock, Carroll’s decision to onside kick at the start of overtime was a sound, smart tactic. Here is the logic and math, from the Twitter feed of ESPN’s Brian Burke, a Reston resident who has for years been at the fore of advanced statistical analysis in football:
SEA onside to start OT not crazy. Needed a 25% success prob to make it worth the risk. Surprise onsides recovered ~50%. Expected <20%.
— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) September 13, 2015Important consideration is successful rcvry puts the game immediately into sudden death. A failed recovery keeps the game in 1st poss mode.
— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) September 13, 2015The point is, Carroll’s gamble didn’t pay off, but it is also a gamble to kick deep and give the opponent the ball. Carroll wanted to give the Seahawks a chance to win without the ball ever touching the Rams’ hands.
Carroll, though, provided an odd wrinkle in his postgame press conference. He insisted Hauschka messed up the play.
“We didn’t execute properly on the kick,” Carroll said. “Simple as that. We were kicking the ball way down the field.”
[Seahawks give Lynch the ball … seven months to late]
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That adds some confusion to the situation. If Carroll really didn’t want to onside, then the discussion becomes moot. But if Carroll did want some kind of kick designed to get the ball back, the call also revealed something about how Carroll views his vaunted defense, a unit that suddenly appears shaky.
The Seahawks made several big plays on defense Sunday, including the strip-sack on a cornerback blitz that newcomer Cary Williams turned into a touchdown. But it also faltered to the tune of giving the offensively challenged Rams 31 points in regulation. Call it the Legion of Gloom.
By attempting the onside, and thereby aiming to keep his defense on the sideline, Carroll showed he lacks faith in a unit currently playing without star safety Kam Chancellor, who is holding out in a bitter contract dispute. It’s a reasonable reaction. In the game’s final minute, Dion Bailey, Chancellor’s replacement, lined up to cover tight end Lance Kendicks. As Kendricks dashed by him, Bailey tumbled to the turf and gave up a 37-yard, game-tying touchdown.
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There were widely reported rumblings from the Seattle locker room after the Super Bowl calling Carroll’s play call into question. Those internal criticisms will surely return after Carroll’s onside kick. Once professional athletes lose confidence in a coach’s decision-making, they start hunting for decisions to decry. That will be especially true of Carroll’s defensive unit, which was just told by its head coach that it’s not good enough to be trusted in overtime.
The Seahawks have been to the last two Super Bowls, and they have enough talent to return to a third. But after just one week, especially without Chancellor, they face several obstacles.
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